March 6 (Bloomberg) -- Credit trading models used by Wall Street have gone haywire, raising company borrowing costs even as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke cuts interest rates.
General Electric Co. is one of five U.S. companies rated AAA by both Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service, making its ability to repay debt unquestioned. Yet when the Fairfield, Connecticut-based company sold 2.25 billion euros ($3.35 billion) of five-year bonds last week, its annual interest payment was $17 million higher than on a sale nine months ago.
Borrowers from investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. to Germany's HeidelbergCement AG face the same predicament. Yelds on $5.12 trillion of corporate bonds tracked by Merrill Lynch & Co. average 2.05 percentage points more than U.S. Treasuries, the most since at least 1997.
The higher costs are an unintended consequence of securities that allow investors to speculate on corporate creditworthiness. So-called correlation models used to value them have become unreliable in the fallout from the U.S. subprime mrtgage crisis. Last month some showed the odds of a default by an investment- grade company spreading to others exceeded 100 percent -- a mathematical impossibility, according to UBS AG.
``The credit-default swap market is completely distorting reality,'' said Henner Boettcher, treasurer of HeidelbergCement in Heidelberg, Germany, the country's biggest cement maker. ``Given what these spreads imply about defaults, we should be in a deep depression, and we are not.''
Hedging Losses
The problem started in the second half of last year when subprime mortgage delinquencies started to rise, causing investors to retreat from complex instruments such as synthetic collateralized debt obligations, or packages of credit-default swaps that became hard to value. The swaps are contracts based on bonds and used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debt.
As values of CDOs began to fall, banks that had sold swaps underlying the securities started to buy indexes based on them instead, a method of hedging their losses on portions of the CDOs they owned. The purchases are driving the cost of the contracts higher, raising the perception that company bonds tied to the swaps are suddenly riskier and leading investors to demand higher yields throughout the corporate debt market.
The Markit CDX North America Investment-Grade Index, a gauge of credit-default swaps on 125 companies from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. to Walt Disney Co., more than doubled since the start of the year to a record 171 basis points on March 4. The index is up from last year's low of 29 in February. A similar benchmark in Europe rose to a record 139 basis points earlier this week.
Undermining Bernanke
The $1.5 trillion CDO market is undermining Bernanke's attempts to lower borrowing costs. The Fed cut its target rate for overnight lending between banks by 2.25 percentage points to 3 percent since September, and even debtors with the safest ratings are paying more. Money-market rates for euros and pounds climbed to the highest since mid-January yesterday, signaling the global squeeze on short-term bank lending may be returning.
The financing unit of GE, the world's most prolific borrower, sold the 4.875 percent five-year bonds last week at a yield 1.29 percentage points higher than similar-maturity government rates, Bloomberg data show. Last May, the company issued 750 million euros of 4.375 four-year notes at a spread of 0.27 percentage points.
The additional expense stems from credit-default swaps tied to GE's bonds. Their cost climbed to a record 165 basis points on March 4 from 12 points a year earlier, according to CMA Datavision in New York.
